Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 57

New York Giants 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(11:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to ATL 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 35-A.Williams to ATL 16 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.87 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model