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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 9-C.Nizialek punts 58 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 39 for 19 yards (23-E.Harris). PENALTY on ATL-13-C.Blake, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.86 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model