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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 50

New York Giants 14 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP