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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model