Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 3-J.Charlton punts 42 yards to HOU 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to HOU 27 for no gain (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at HOU 27, and recovers at HOU 23. PENALTY on CAR-49-F.Luvu, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.75 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model