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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Thursday 2021-09-23 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CAR
57.3%
HOU
42.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.386 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (CAR): +0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CAR 25
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CAR

Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Ankle

HOU

Danny Amendola WR Out Thigh
Terrance Mitchell CB Out Concussion
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Questionable Knee
Justin Reid S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 24
–
HOU 9

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:41 TD CAR (6:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:29 TD HOU (:29) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 3-A.Miller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – HOU 6
  • Q3 06:25 TD CAR (6:25) 82-T.Tremble left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – HOU 6
  • Q4 12:47 FG CAR (12:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. CAR 17 – HOU 6
  • Q4 09:13 FG HOU (9:13) 16-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. CAR 17 – HOU 9
  • Q4 04:12 TD CAR (4:12) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – HOU 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:11) 3-J.Charlton punts 32 yards to HOU 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 12 for 5 yards (15-C.Moore).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to HOU 5 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey, 41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 29 for 12 yards (32-G.Wallow).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:11) 3-J.Charlton punts 42 yards to HOU 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to HOU 27 for no gain (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at HOU 27, and recovers at HOU 23. PENALTY on CAR-49-F.Luvu, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:16) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:44) 3-J.Charlton punts 37 yards to HOU 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 49%

    (10:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 36, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-15-C.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-32-G.Wallow, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 36.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.37 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (12:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

    (9:13) 16-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to CAR 42 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson) [7-S.Thompson].