Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(12:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 12 for 5 yards (15-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.14 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model