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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 80

Houston Texans 6 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 36, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-15-C.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-32-G.Wallow, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model