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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 58

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model