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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 6-P.Harvin punts 27 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model