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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CIN
32.1%
PIT
67.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.233 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): -0.076 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 18
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Xavier Su'a-Filo G Doubtful Knee
Tee Higgins WR Doubtful Shoulder
Trae Waynes CB Doubtful Hamstring

PIT

Carlos Davis DT Out Knee
Alex Highsmith LB Out Groin
Diontae Johnson WR Out Knee
T.J. Watt LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 24
–
PIT 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:03 TD CIN (3:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 01:09 TD PIT (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 00:43 TD CIN (:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – PIT 7
  • Q3 08:51 FG CIN (8:51) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – PIT 7
  • Q3 06:25 TD CIN (6:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – PIT 7
  • Q4 08:12 FG PIT (8:12) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CIN 24 – PIT 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 42 for 16 yards (31-J.Layne).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:59) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-C.Harris. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 20 for 14 yards (57-G.Pratt).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (12:31) 6-P.Harvin punts 27 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (9:42) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 14, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 85%

    (8:51) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (4:25) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:26) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-57-G.Pratt. PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at PIT 8.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (8:12) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:33) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 22-N.Harris pushed ob at CIN 12 for -1 yards (30-J.Bates).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:05) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to PIT 27, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 22-N.Harris.