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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model