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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model