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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model