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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-C.Harris. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 20 for 14 yards (57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model