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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 22-N.Harris pushed ob at CIN 12 for -1 yards (30-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.23 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP