4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 22-N.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.92 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -1.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model