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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to GB 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model