Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.488 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SF offense: +0.210 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- GB offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
GB
SF
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:11 FG GB (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 3 – SF 0
- Q1 03:23 TD GB (3:23) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught on SF 1. 1-YAC GB 9 – SF 0
- Q2 01:05 TD GB (1:05) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – SF 0
- Q2 00:02 TD SF (:02) 5-T.Lance in at QB (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – SF 6
- Q3 07:45 TD SF (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – SF 13
- Q4 13:32 TD GB (13:32) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – SF 14
- Q4 07:51 TD SF (7:51) 10-J.Garoppolo at QB. 28-T.Sermon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – SF 20
- Q4 02:43 FG GB (2:43) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 27 – SF 21
- Q4 00:43 TD SF (:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at GB 7. 7-YAC GB 27 – SF 27
- Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 30 – SF 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(7:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 76%
(1:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to GB 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
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Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(13:58) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to SF 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(10:25) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb [97-N.Bosa].
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Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to GB 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.
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Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 61%
(6:10) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to SF 19, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 28 for 9 yards (41-H.Black).
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 60%
(4:34) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to GB 8, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 14 for 6 yards (49-T.Cannon).
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Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:31) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to SF 12, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 26 for 14 yards (59-D.Campbell).
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%
(2:43) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.