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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to SF 19, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 28 for 9 yards (41-H.Black).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.30 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP