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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to GB 8, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 14 for 6 yards (49-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP