Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 24 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(7:31) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to SF 12, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 26 for 14 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model