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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to LV 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 15 for 7 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP