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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

MIA
16.2%
LV
83.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.313 vs Jacoby Brissett (MIA) -0.323 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Jacoby Brissett in place of Tua Tagovailoa)
  • LV offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIA defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 18
–
LV 31
Projected margin: LV by 13 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIA

Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Ribs

LV

Richie Incognito G Out Calf
Dallin Leavitt S Out Concussion
Roderic Teamer CB Out Ankle
Josh Jacobs RB Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 28
–
LV 31

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:49 TD MIA (6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 52-E.Roberts [21-E.Rowe] at MIA 15. 52-E.Roberts for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – LV 0
  • Q1 03:15 TD MIA (3:15) 34-M.Brown up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – LV 0
  • Q1 00:36 SAF LV (:36) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-J.Waddle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (29-C.Hayward). MIA 14 – LV 2
  • Q2 11:41 FG LV (11:41) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. MIA 14 – LV 5
  • Q2 02:00 TD LV (2:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-A.Ingold for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – LV 11
  • Q3 07:24 TD LV (7:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – LV 18
  • Q4 13:50 TD LV (13:50) 31-P.Barber up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – LV 25
  • Q4 08:34 FG MIA (8:34) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 17 – LV 25
  • Q4 00:08 TD MIA (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – LV 25
  • Q5 06:32 FG LV (6:32) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. MIA 25 – LV 28
  • Q5 02:54 FG MIA (2:54) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 28 – LV 28
  • Q5 00:03 FG LV (:03) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. MIA 28 – LV 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:36) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-J.Grant to MIA 32 for 8 yards (7-Z.Jones).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 41%

    (10:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to LV 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 15 for 7 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (4:55) 31-P.Barber up the middle to LV 34 for no gain (92-Z.Sieler).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 20 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 34%

    (:47) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to MIA 1, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on MIA-24-By.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (11:41) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 61%

    (6:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to LV 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (:02) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to LV 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 28 for 2 yards (9-N.Igbinoghene).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (5:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to LV 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (8:34) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to MIA 23, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 30 for 7 yards (45-A.Ingold).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 51%

    (4:33) (No Huddle) 14-J.Brissett up the middle to LV 43 for no gain (96-D.Philon; 90-J.Hankins).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to 50 for 15 yards (29-C.Hayward).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.