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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to LV 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model