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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 25

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model