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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 25 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to MIA 23, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 30 for 7 yards (45-A.Ingold).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP