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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 25

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (No Huddle) 14-J.Brissett up the middle to LV 43 for no gain (96-D.Philon; 90-J.Hankins).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.25 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model