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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 31-P.Barber up the middle to LV 34 for no gain (92-Z.Sieler).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model