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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 43

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 4-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to DEN 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.23 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model