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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYJ
8.4%
DEN
91.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.268 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.431 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.388 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: +0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 14
–
DEN 31
Projected margin: DEN by 17 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYJ

Tevin Coleman RB Out Illness
Jamison Crowder WR Doubtful Groin
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Calf

DEN

Graham Glasgow G Questionable Illness
Mike Purcell DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 0
–
DEN 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:32 TD DEN (3:32) 33-J.Williams right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 14:55 FG DEN (14:55) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – DEN 10
  • Q2 01:01 TD DEN (1:01) 25-M.Gordon left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-66-D.Risner, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 0 – DEN 16
  • Q3 09:28 FG DEN (9:28) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – DEN 20
  • Q4 06:45 FG DEN (6:45) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – DEN 23
  • Q4 01:04 FG DEN (1:04) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – DEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 25%

    (12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-82-E.Saubert.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DEN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to DEN 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 83%

    (14:55) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 46%

    (7:54) 4-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to DEN 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (5:29) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (3:49) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to DEN 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 36 for 5 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:07) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 19.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 79%

    (9:28) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:11) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to DEN 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 11 yards (45-H.Nasirildeen).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:17) 6-S.Martin punts 26 yards to NYJ 41, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-82-E.Saubert. Deflected by NYJ 43-D.Phillips.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 86%

    (14:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Johnson.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (6:45) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 29 for -12 yards (45-A.Johnson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (1:04) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.