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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 86

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.62 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP