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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 76

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to DEN 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 36 for 5 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.99 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model