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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP