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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 29

Denver Broncos 17 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model