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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 67

Denver Broncos 20 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 6-S.Martin punts 26 yards to NYJ 41, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-82-E.Saubert. Deflected by NYJ 43-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model