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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 25

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.13 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model