Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(10:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DEN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model