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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 59

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 29 for -12 yards (45-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP