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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 17

Denver Broncos 23 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model