4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to DEN 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model