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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to DAL 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-A.Chachere.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model