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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Monday 2021-09-27 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

PHI
51.7%
DAL
48.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.142 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.220 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 26
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PHI

Jordan Mailata T Out Knee
Rodney McLeod S Out Knee
Boston Scott RB Questionable Illness
Davion Taylor LB Questionable Calf

DAL

Dorance Armstrong DE Out Ankle
Ty Nsekhe T Out Illness
Carlos Watkins DT Out Knee
Donovan Wilson S Doubtful Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 21
–
DAL 41

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:52 TD DAL (11:52) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 10:04 TD PHI (10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL -4 for -9 yards (97-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (97-J.Hargrave), RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at DAL -5. TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DAL 7
  • Q1 01:36 TD DAL (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DAL 13
  • Q2 07:13 TD DAL (7:13) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DAL 20
  • Q3 14:17 TD DAL (14:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at DAL 41. 7-T.Diggs for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DAL 26
  • Q3 07:13 TD PHI (7:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – DAL 27
  • Q4 11:34 TD DAL (11:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-C.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – DAL 33
  • Q4 07:05 TD DAL (7:05) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – DAL 40
  • Q4 03:19 TD PHI (3:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 84-G.Ward for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – DAL 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (5:50) (Run formation) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to PHI 1 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 96-D.Barnett). Dallas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:43.)

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to DAL 45, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-C.Wilson to 50 for 5 yards (21-A.Chachere).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to DAL 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 8 yards (57-T.Edwards).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 38%

    (5:10) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to DAL 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-A.Chachere.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:11) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to PHI 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 34 for -4 yards (44-J.McQuaide; 54-A.Kamara). PENALTY on PHI-84-G.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 34.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (:20) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to DAL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-S.Bradley.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:52) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to DAL 32, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:13) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 10 for -3 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 27%

    (4:09) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 51 yards to DAL 39, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (11:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-C.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 31 for -12 yards (sack split by 97-O.Odighizuwa and 11-M.Parsons). Penalty on PHI-77-A.Dillard, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 44 for 4 yards (59-C.Golston).