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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 10 for -3 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.31 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model