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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.69 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model