Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 90

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 27

(2:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 51 yards to DAL 39, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 90, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model