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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Run formation) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to PHI 1 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 96-D.Barnett). Dallas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:43.)

The Three Options

GO +4.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model