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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 94

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to DAL 45, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-C.Wilson to 50 for 5 yards (21-A.Chachere).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 94, worth -5.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.91 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model