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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +4.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.15 EP