Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SEA offense: +0.258 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- MIN offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- MIN defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to SEA: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.207 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.340 EPA/dropback
- SEA defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
SEA
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:32 TD SEA (10:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – MIN 0
- Q1 06:41 TD MIN (6:41) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – MIN 6
- Q1 00:32 FG SEA (:32) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – MIN 7
- Q2 11:19 TD SEA (11:19) 32-C.Carson left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – MIN 7
- Q2 05:32 TD MIN (5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-6-Q.Diggs, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 17 – MIN 13
- Q2 00:20 TD MIN (:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – MIN 20
- Q3 06:39 FG MIN (6:39) 1-G.Joseph 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. SEA 17 – MIN 24
- Q4 13:52 FG MIN (13:52) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. SEA 17 – MIN 27
- Q4 04:33 FG MIN (4:33) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. SEA 17 – MIN 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%
(:32) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:52) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to SEA 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 86%
(3:18) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 38 for 13 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%
(13:52) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 45%
(11:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 11 for -1 yards (19-P.Hart).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.15 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(4:33) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 51%
(2:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 19-P.Hart (22-H.Smith) [99-D.Hunter].
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Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 46 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%
(:29) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to SEA 1, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.